Field notes
Notes from building a synthetic population
Method write-ups, results we can show, and the parts of this that do not work yet. Written by the people building it.
Why persona prompting is not a population
Asking a model to act like a 34-year-old shopper gives you one voice. Here is what has to happen before you get a distribution.
PI
Pavel Ievlev
12 August 2026
No to a Switzerland of 10 Million
A forecast published 13 days before the federal vote, built from a synthetic Swiss electorate rather than polling.
AK
Artem Kokhov
1 June 2026
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